Come Hell or High Water

The last rains fell square on the main two watersheds that feed the northern Sacramento Valley. Unambiguous saturation effects. Rain at higher attitudes is making its way all the way down to the delta and pooling in confluences.

Just the type of rain that carved those watersheds in the first place, I think. Probably have to ask a geologist whether uplift on the continental shelf is happening fast enough to counteract the Pacific’s action on the coastal ranges to change the topology against the water courses in a discernable way.

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Avoid exposure to stagnant flood waters and, in general, mitigation against mold is better sooner than later. If you gotta go in, use rubber boots, waders, gloves and goggles.

CDC has some lists of Dos and Don’ts.

Flood Waters or Standing Waters | Water, Sanitation, & Hygiene-related Emergencies & and Outbreaks | Healthy Water | CDC

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What an interesting / fascinating comment! Isostacy, tectonics, orogenic mechanics & erosional processes?! Makes me wonder about the isostatic response from a still rising continent (thanks to no more glacier weight) coupled with additional rise due to erosional processes carrying away even more weight to the oceans. How do the erosional / depositional relationships change when climate cycles change? My head hurts now. I’m a dork, i like dirt, and i don’t really know what the heck i’m talkin about…

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Yeah, that’s all above my pay grade, but interesting in the abstract. Try not to drink standing water at all, even if it looks clear. I wouldn’t put it past some benighted souls to try unsafe or risky chemical treatments on standing water on properties that makes it way to poolings on public land.

Just like when you see a stand of really unusual growth in a forest. Makes you wonder what’s been dumped or buried there, and for how long. With FS/BLM at 2/3 or even 1/2 strength, that’s all much easier to get away with, isn’t it. :unamused:

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Early Bird Forecast: Next 7 Days

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Summary:

  • Lingering showers across the region today with chances of thunderstorms over parts of southern CA and NV.
  • Dry conditions develop into Thursday through Saturday before precipitation chances return late this weekend into early next week.
  • Sierra Freezing Levels: North 4.5-6 kft Weds/Thurs, 7-9 kft Thurs-Sun | Central 5-7.5 kft Weds/Thurs, 7.5-9 kft Fri-Sun | South 6-8.5 kft Weds/Thurs, 8-9.5 kft Thurs-Sun
  • Most rivers affected by heavy precipitation over last few days are now in recession.
  • Several locations on the Sacramento River remain above monitor stage as flood crest travels downstream.

Confidence: Medium, Low Sunday onward

Staffing Level: Normal

Detailed Hydrometeorological Discussion: cnrfc.noaa.gov/discussion

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Something of a break in the precip this weekend, but by no means should anyone assume that the road and creek crossing hazards are going to dry up overnight or that drainage will not be ongoing through the forecast interval. It should be clear that, even a year after Piper, the public is still struggling to adapt to variable and unexpected creek and watercourse behavior.

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I guess, since I’ve been doing most of the posting on this topic, let me extend a “Thank you, good job, keep it up.” to journalists, reporters and news organizations that are following the stories and the crews fighting the fight.

I encourage you to continue to seek transparency and safe access, that the public not be unaware of the issues, dangers and casualties that have been sustained and what to do about it.

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There was a lot of this at Katrina. Not quite so much that the City did nothing; the breach at the 9th Ward was caused by a barge that got loose in the canal and punctured the levee, although that risk could have been mitigated.

The survivors and advocates I spoke with were more concerned that, in the aftermath, the City wanted to rezone the neighborhoods so that residences could not be built there anymore, and actively ran interference for the land grab. In addition, the rules about what kind of payouts you got, from whom, and when, were very complicated and some of them in complete contradiction of common sense. The Federal Govt was also tied up in Afghanistan, Iraq, domestic terrorism and wild stories (some of them true). I learned to appreciate the wisdom of Thomas Paine (1737-1809).

People talk about a Mother Nature. I’ve never seen it. Nature doesn’t file a plan.

I like to tell this story. I was sort of fortunate, in a way, to have been through basic public safety training (wildfire) and a couple active seasons with a little bit of insight into how the big machine operated and what can happen to situational awareness. I was instructed that, as the crew tail-end charlie, there could be a time when the C1 and Crew Leader at the head of the line would need to rely on me(!) to lead the crew to safety. (Fortunately, for us, that only happened in training.) I had been introduced to some procedures to lead when things break down. After my Corpsmember Specialist rate (not to be confused with Special Corpsmember), they sent me to CLT and I placed second, and was on-track to take my CU crew on 3rd year, but a job in town proved irresistible.

When a Fire Department says, “It’s all we could do, but evacuate.” I’m prepared to believe it. And, truth be told, I have too many miles on the odometer, anymore, to put up much of an argument.

I’ve also been well-steeped in California’s history of robber barons, railroad tycoons and abuses. Just like wildfire, post-disaster opportunism is a factor, every time.

I’ve seen a San Diego City Attorney on a grandstand tell the country that the entire City of San Diego needed to be evacuated to Tijuana because of a wildfire, when that was clearly unnecessary.

In private work, I’ve stood a few security watches in dangerous places with nothing but a radio, a maglite, and an attitude. I’ve done hazmat contracting on military bases. I know what it’s like to stand at a crossroads with a stop sign and have to tell somebody that access is denied. I’ve felt the cloth.

Sometimes, there is a lack of transparency, because nobody does know what’s going on, and sometimes that realization can shake you to the core.

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A simple highlight why water safety and swift water training, including the defensive moves, is so important.

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Community Emergency Response Training (CERT) is available to the public. Check with your Local Government (LG) for in-person classes and training sessions. You also have access to online materials, classes and courses through FEMA and EMI:

CERT Basic Training | Disaster Skills & Community Preparedness (fema.gov)

Join CERT | FEMA’s Community Emergency Response Team

IS-315.A: CERT and the Incident Command System (ICS)

IS-317.A: Introduction to Community Emergency Response Team (CERTs)

Note: The redundant use of the terms “community” and “management” are a clue about where many people’s heads are at when approaching these topics. These are materials, classes and courses that can help you focus on understanding and action.

Teamwork makes things possible.

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Roof Collapse Due To Snow Loads: Common Causes and Prevention Strategies (YouTube, 59m)

Light on the sales pitch. Includes an interesting section on best practices to unload a roof at around the 33m mark.

FEMA Snow Load Safety Guide (pdf)

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/california-to-stay-drought-free-through-2025-following-2-winters-of-epic-storms-accuweather-experts-say/1627328

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Oh ! Great news. Now we don’t have to worry about new dams or reservoirs. WE can now spend that money on reparations, DEI or other Social Equality issues that are more important to our residents ( citizens no longer used ) . :thinking:

Tongue FIRMLY in cheek.

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About another decade of this for this site. Some of these ground water spots will benefit from the extra margin, but its a long game for ag.

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Summary:

  • Moderate to locally heavy precipitation across coastal soCal through Sunday morning.
  • A low pressure system will continue to travel south offshore of the cntrl/srn CA coast the rest of the weekend bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Drying early next week before precipitation chances return mid/late week.
  • Sierra Freezing Levels- Sat/Sun: 4-6 kft Mon: 6-8 kft Tues/Weds: 8-11 kft Thrs: 2-6 kft
  • Expect rises on southern and central CA rivers as storm system moves through over the weekend.
  • Additional locations throughout state may see flow increases due to local storm activity.

Confidence: Medium

Staffing Level: Normal

Detailed Hydrometeorological Discussion: www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/discussion


Like several recent storm systems, this low-pressure system presents a small risk of stalling out around the south of the Catalina Eddy and dropping locally heavy precipitation on saturated grounds. I might suppose this storm will present as many or more hazards from winds and unstable slopes as accumulation totals outside of areas with well-known and notoriously poor drainage. There is also some lightning activity in the upper Los Padres.

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