From SPC:
…Northern California and far South-Central Oregon…
The latest convection-allowing guidance indicates potential for
isolated dry thunderstorm development during the late
afternoon/early evening over this confined region on Sunday. PWAT
values here should remain near or under 0.75 inches amid fuels that
remain conducive to large-fire spread despite some recent rains.
Thus, an area has been introduced delineating the potential for dry
lightning starts Sunday afternoon/evening.
Thanks for the info. Looks my work will continue to be cut out for the foreseeable future
A buddy is reporting 2" of hail in last half hour in Chester.
Nothing white showing on the cameras?
Regional Forecast
Watches and Warnings
https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sto&wwa=all
Forecast Discussion
https://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sto&wwa=all
Pretty large cells over SKU/KNF/LMU right now. Let’s see how this plays out. Any reports of precip?
Plenty of visible precip on radar and cameras
We had some pretty decent buildups over the July Complex on the Modoc. Getting some winds out of it now and looks like quite a few lightning strikes over the fire area.
Some interesting outlook info from Daniel Swain - serious Wizard when it comes to climate. Highly recommend his WeatherWest blog.
Great blog, some very knowledgeable folks who follow him and contribute
For sure !!
Dr. Swain from Weather West blog saying its looking pretty dicey out there today with the lightning…
https://mobile.twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1294654942704095232?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1294654942704095232|twgr^&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdisqus.com%2Fembed%2Fcomments%2F%3Fbase%3Ddefaultf%3Dweatherwestt_i%3D742720https3A2F2Fweatherwest.com2F3Fp3D7427t_u%3Dhttps3A2F2Fweatherwest.com2Farchives2F7427t_e%3DDangerously20intense2C20prolonged2C20and20humid20heatwave20for20most20of20Californiat_d%3DDangerously20intense2C20prolonged2C20and20humid20heatwave20for20most20of20Californiat_t%3DDangerously20intense2C20prolonged2C20and20humid20heatwave20for20most20of20Californias_o%3Ddescversion%3D44742cd8863826760a96af6b1ed3cde1
From this mornings forecast discussion out of NWS - Monterey. (Link after)
… a surge of moisture at 700-500mb aloft will be advected in from the south in the southerly flow between these features later today, tonight, and into Sunday morning. Elevated convective parameters meet critical thresholds to spark the potential for fast moving, high based convection of which some isolated thunderstorms may develop and move across the area from south to north. Given the dry fuels and hot, drying air mass in place, any isolated lightning strikes could lead to new wildfire starts. In addition, due to both the high based and fast northward progression, little if any precipitation will accompany lightning strikes at the surface, suggesting that isolated dry lightning will be the main outcome of any elevated convection through the coming days.
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?afos=afdmtr&wfo=mtr&new
Fire Wx Watches upgraded to Red Flag Warnings for Bay Area and Central Coast:
https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=mtr&pil=RFW&sid=mtr&new
