Some finer details via:
NWS Monterey Forecast Discussion
"This set up would support the potential for isolated/scattered thunderstorms over the North Bay and then interior portions of the East Bay from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Given the ongoing hot and dry conditions combined with critically dry fuels, any thunderstorms (wet or dry) would be of concern. As mentioned earlier, this is a low confidence (15-20 percent) but potentially high impact situation if thunderstorms do in fact develop anywhere over the region."
NWS Sacramento Forecast Discussion:
“The bad news is we are now expecting scattered thunderstorms to move over the interior mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. The low will first bring chances to the coastal range late in the day. Chances extend into the valley Thursday evening mainly central Sacramento valley northward then after midnight over Sacramento and into the northern motherlode and mountains mainly Plumas county northward. By late at night the activity should shift over the Northern San Joaquin valley eastern Sacramento county and the entire motherlode/mountains. The low does progress east during the day with chances ending during the morning. Thunderstorms look like they will be a mix of dry and wet but generally less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall for the lower elevations. Higher up along the western slopes maybe around a quarter inch or so with the stronger ones.”
With regard to wind forecast with this set up from ONCC:
“Additional concerns include strong outflow winds from storms and increasing SW winds Thu/Fri afternoon and evening. SW winds will be strongest from the crest eastward Fri afternoon increasing to 30-40 mph with higher gusts possible along exposed ridges.”
