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Half inch of rain in the gauge. Slow and steady rain through the night. No puddles anywhere. Partly cloudy out now maybe more tonight.
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The weather added another 3/4 inch last night. Total of 1.25. inches. That’s not enough to shut Fire Season down but with the longer nights it will slow it down around here for awhile.
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2.2" as of 1000 this morning in Camino. I am directly south of the Mosquito Fire by about 15 miles, maybe a little further, and at the same elevation. Most all our cells have moved from South to North, instead of the normal West to East, so this should be pretty representative of the fire area. Have been getting fairly heavy showers the past hour or two (1300-1500), so the total has gone up a little.
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Good evening, the wetting rainfall is welcome however we will be heading into a summer-like heatwave for the extended forecast. The climate prediction center has a high chance of above normal temperatures through the next 14 days. Rising heights plus weak offshore flow will promote a strong drying trend. Fire season is not over despite the rain. In South Ops, we had a 20 acre fire near Lake Morena days after the area receiving 2-3" of rain.
A long wave trough is setting up over the eastern US, this trough position is not bullish for strong offshore winds as it is a bit far to the east, however the large ridge over the Western US will likely persist for the rest of the month.
A complicating factor in the long term is the track of future Tropical Storm Hermine, as it appears to be a slam dunk strong storm to impact the US Gulf Coast.
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When your in a severe to extreme drought 1-3 inches of localized rain doesn’t do much.
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Agree, ground is so dry most rainfall will runoff. Remember your S-390 class taught that most live fuels don’t take in soil moisture this time of year. Yet on the other hand dead fuels will be impacted some.
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We are one good north wind event and a start away with the temps. Grass is coming up in the shade of the oaks and on the side of the roads in places. A good south wind in front of a storm would do the same. Don’t get complacent this time of year it could come back and bite you.
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When inland lows track just east of the Sierra and high pressure to the NW … that’s the usual setup for this… potential north/offshore wind next week. Euro model 2,500’ ft in the Tue night/Wed timeframe.
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Forecast models are beginning to agree that a closed upper level low will traverse the Great Basin on Monday-Wednesday and set up a Diablo wind event. This storm is pretty strong and cold and could produce mountain wave activity depending on where it sets up. A complicating factor in the upper level air pattern is where tropical disturbance 91L tracks. If the storm makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, it’s anticyclone will complicate the upper air pattern. Most of the ensembles that keep this storm weak steer it into Central America. However, those that strengthen the storm track it further north across the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico.
The chance of advisory level winds is medium at this time. The fuels continue to dry out after wetting rain and the grass crop should quickly cure as the ground dries.
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6" of green grass in Bidwell Park right now, in Chico, and live fuel moistures in manzanita are well above critical levels on the Feather River District of PNF.
NorthOps doesn’t seem especially concerned.
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Fire season is all year long, climate change, the worst fire season ever, extreme drought, bug kill…
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Ugh, Climate Change? Armageddon is here in Ca. ( And the world according to someone). But, hey where’s Fire Season?
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Guess I am left wondering how you can be in this job and not accept that things have changed with regard to our environment. This is beyond drought impacts and requires all of us to accept it and adopt a new paradigm. I would suggest that most of our failures on fires over the last 8-10 years have been from a failure of the fire service to adopt the changing environment. There is alotof metrics which support the changes we are experiencing.
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