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A lot forecasters are going to predict a below average fire season for the Pacific NW/North ops. The sun has a large influence on the amplification of weather, and with the Earths magnetic field weakening even more, and the potential for more solar activity as part of solar cycle 25… I will give the opinion that there is greater potential for more extreme weather swings… such as extreme heat waves and even unorthodox precipitation/tropical storm like events.
At some point this summer, there will likely be a record heatwave that stresses the vegetation. El Nino development could enhance the NW US heat this summer, as it typically does. Keep in mind we have had extreme heat waves during La Nina summers the past few years, when typically as a whole the West coast is typically cooler.
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I think we now can safely postulate that in terms of how Wx events & Orders of Magnitude have impacted all life/conditions on this planet - its beyond safe to say that even with recent events it’s been really really quiet overall planet-wise, sun wise, solar system wise since way before we started writing down the weather. We’re here bcuz of a “quiet spell” that will cycle back. Its the “calmest” climate wise our planet has been since YDB +/- 11,800 yeas ago… The way we talk/think/look at Wx, Fires, Climate etc needs to change. Am i nuts or? End of Report…
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I constantly hear people saying first ever extreme drought, global heating, global cooling, climate change, extreme heat etc. The weather and our earth should be viewed in hundreds of years at a time. Not these 10-20 year cycles we as humans, that only live about 70- 85ish years. The overall weather changes over hundreds of year. Next time you’re out on the line (active folks…) look at the rings on large trees we drop. On the Dixie, I was showing the younger generation the multiple extreme droughts, followed by plentiful growth due to ample moisture. Also, the numerous significant scars hundreds of years (rings) ago due to intense fire impingement. I was taught back in the early 80’s, by a seasoned CDF “old timer”, this same ideology. Thats my 2 cents… pob904 out.
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Yes it has been very quite solar wise. At least that is what is thought. The consistent factor recently has been the earths weakening magnetic field, which allows more solar radiation and photons to impact the planet, despite low solar activity. Most of the heat is absorbed into the oceans, which actually has an inverse affect of destabilizing cold air masses from the poles. The North Pole has been moving around 40 miles per year, which should affect the natural climatological oscillations. So I think that a great forecaster will look at climatology and model data, but a wise forecaster will look at all available data. When we see polarized weather, the average can skew towards the mean which can misrepresent the actual occurrences.
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Does anyone else feel as though we cant escape being trapped inside a box where everything is based on theories and postulations of Einstein et al. I offer that it sure seems like we all got sucked into our current state of being severely short sighted toward climate and Wx by another box called “since record keeping began”. Unless i’m wrong it’s now a fact that if we’re looking at this stuff from the vantage of what western civilization calls “recorded history” we are missing MOST of earths history including the Wx data. Smart as those rascals Einstein Et al were - even they were limited in what they would listen too, observe, prove/dis-prove & understand. Easy for me to say i get it. What i mean is that none of those fancy theory people had been around for as long as the earth has been around. They didn’t have ice cores or Lidar and its fact that they shunned other researchers theory’s and proof of recurring events of catastrophism from weather, space etc - all or the sake of a unifying natural order/theory where everything happens mostly slowly over time and fits in a tidy box like general relativity. As Pob904 mentioned above thanks to our tiny life spans it feels like we’re doomed to always be surprised and twisted in knots whenever a rainy season gets extra rainy. Or when a hot season gets extra hot. Or when a few decades are warmer/colder etc. I had to learn that when it come to earths Wx there have been periods of constant extreme lightning that have lasted for many many years. Periods of rain also. Periods of ice that lasted for millions of years & periods of hot/fire have done the same. And for a kicker lets talk about the mega-flooding that has gone on! The more i try to study the more i’m convinced we are right now making a HUGE fuss over one of the most quiet/friendly climatological periods the current iteration of humans have observed - hence things like populations of humans globally, enlightenment, renaissance, industrial revolution, etc. Sorry for the ramble. Appreciate y’all beyond words…
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Well, that did not take long to come to fruition at all. This heatwave and monsoonal flow is very atypical for May, it is a pattern that usually only manifests in July-September. There will be increased chances of thunderstorms across the higher terrain but in reality a lot of excess moisture is just being cycled out as the heatwave will begin to dry things out at lower elevations. Looking ahead towards the end of the month, troughing and zonal flow is favored with strong onshore winds, as we begin the see-saw of ridging-zonal flow that occurs before the summer monsoonal flow.
High amplitude weather can really compress seasons, and it begs the question if the early monsoon gives way to an early extreme heatwave that typically occurs in September, perhaps that occurs in August this year.
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