And just like that, itās goneā¦
Well, almost gone. Down from 2-3" estimates a few days ago, to maybe 1/2" of rain in the mountains now.
I want to share your optimism.. iām finding it hard tho. 
Concerned and then some that behind the approaching front(s) and any subsequent moisture they bring (recent models have been trending less and less) will be a rapid return to ridging, diablo winds & above average heat/dryness. Thinking at this point we really need snow more than rain but what do i kno. Rain/moisture certainly wont hurt. Keeping fingers crossed! 
You arenāt wrong. This looks like the only chance at precip for at least 2 weeks. I do know the hills are browning up awfully quickly here in Sonoma county.
Ummmmm I live in the mountains and weāve gotten over an inch of rain at the 3500ā where Iām at. Another 1 1/2" to comeā¦
Nothing to worry about my friend. Just wait for the super mega ultra El Nino thatās coming later this year. All models point to a very stormy el nino
While the current metrics indicate a burgeoning El NiƱo and possibly a very strong event that could be more east based.. we have not passed the āSpring Predictability Barrierā. We saw this in 2015 with record warmth in the Nino regions of the ocean and ENSO conditions favoring a āstrongā event.. only to have it set up more west and north.. the results were record parameters and underwhelming precipitation for California.
If we pass SPB and a true āEast Basedā event unfolds it could lead to a challenging fire season ahead. The current precipitation is almost a worst case scenario especially if as the models are depicting no follow on large scale pattern change. We have been in a two weeks on two weeks off pattern ( or more) all winter with each dry period becoming increasingly long and dryer. That was evidenced by the last three week and record setting warm and dry ridge. What was most anomalous about the last event was the strength and depth of the high pressure. Warm air existed through 5000 feet which meant that we had actual thermal troughs set up and warm air persisted at night in the thermal belts. This caused an increased drying cycle for the vegetation from 4000 feet down. This trend can only be turned around by prolonged pattern change- which will most likely( almost positively) will not happen based on not just short and long term models but also on climatology.
This current precipitation will spur a second grass crop. Most of the grass up to about 2500 feet has already seeded out. That means a second crop will come up and create a thick base patch.
As for El NiƱo effects. Each one is different but what we can expect is a greater inclination towards warmer weather and warmer coastal strip temps, by the fall we could begin to see more robust development of Pacific Tropical systems and potential impacts in Ca ranging from extra tropical remnants making landfall to lightning outbreaks especially over the deserts and SoCal mountains.
If the east based event does unfold.. fire season could be done before Halloween with a rapid transition to consistent storms.. way to far out to make a call on that.
Tell that to the dozens of meteorologists that are evaluating all the models. Even you canāt look thru a crystal ball to see what will happen.
Just stating itāll be interesting to see what happens.
Thinking about Wx affects & effects beyond norcal has me wondering what it will be like when we stack 2 or 3+ years of this very warm on/off snow drought pattern together over the entire Colorado Watershed and surrounding land. I donāt think itās a far fetched scenario and with the extremes of Wx only getting more extreme - its worrisome++ for more reasons than fire protection.
#shiftingbaselines #theonlyconstantaretrolls!
Much of our infrastructure is based on 60 year old science which when it was built was relying on handwritten records. The shifting baselines are challenging what we think we know and more importantly how we respond to it. We are all reacting.. just some not as fast as others.
If you follow the hotly contested water in the Colorado river you realize how correct Mark Twain wasā¦
A year like this bookended by other dry years has disastrous consequences for that region. One saving point for that area.. with an El NiƱo they may have a more robust and early start to the Monsoon season.. we will see.
No crystal ball here.. just reflecting on what has occurred in the past and applying science to interpreting the future.
Incoming big winds, big warm-up and theres this!
#stillwaitingforwinter.. 
The seesaw continues. Latest round goes back to moist. Itās been a long time since Iāve seen cured 1-hr green āmixā up after the fact (aside from fall green-up before winter) in the lower hills.
Agree.. strange year to have full green up in October/Novemberā¦
More wet weather incomingā¦.
