Happy first day of summer
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Same to you Sir!!!@
Any chance(greater than 40%) the Hudson Bay Low & Tropical Hugh find new homed in the new year?
This T1-T3 fires we keep getting in SoOps is getting old.
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Does not look good based on the CFS modeling for the extended.
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What does it show? For me and those of us not familiar with how to interpret. The forecast we have been getting is moderate moisture ahead.
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There is no moisture to speak of in the extended forecast for So Cal/SoOps (South of Tehachapi / Grapevine)
Next chance for a real pattern change is the 2nd week of Jan. For those of us who were on "Jesus IHC " old. We’ve seen this several times in our lives. 2013-2017, and 1990/91 come to mind.
The “March Miracle” rain event of 1991 was too little, too late. The good news is not enough late season rain for a 2025 grass crop if this current pattern holds. The bad news is the LFM in the brush will be lucky to recover to 100 by May/June. Meanwhile the 100 & 1000hr fuels will act like 1 model lower while the DFM will carry fire anywhere there is heavy dead and down fuel.
In layman’s terms we *&%$ed if nothing changes come 2025.
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Hey …I resemble that remark…
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Yes you do.
I believe you were 1st switch and the Pterodactyl Screech was the sign you had a fire🤣
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CFS weekly/monthly showing a blocking pattern over the North Pacific that would bring split flow pattern across the Pacific. This could direct troughs further north east and keep things dry for the winter. Because of La Nina the split flow ‘southern side’ which is the subtropical jetstream is not amplified and is not a threat to bring significant precipitation.
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We’ve been fortunate with the number of and length of wind events in my opinion. Merry Christmas folks
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Meanwhile in NorCal
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Eastern Sierra Fuel Moisture
75% critical LFM
Current LFM
Rabbit Brush 46%
Bitter Brush 69%
Salt Brush 63%
No precipitation in the forecast for the next 14 days:flushed:
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I assume the article means that little rain fell in the northern areas of Southern California, because here in Plumas County we have received a nice dose of precip. I don’t have numbers, but I did have roof leaks. That’s always an irritating but good sign.
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Here are the cold DRY facts for Q1 of the 24/25 water year.
https://x.com/NWSCNRFC/status/1873781137627373626?t=q2OGO4LxaUcmC5V2m6lFxA&s=09
Meanwhile NWS LA has a RFW for the end/beginning of 2024/2024
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Such extreme differences. And while I am grateful for the water we have received up here, I realize it can make for a challenging 2025 fire season. We completed a major thinning project this year and I am curious to see how the forest floor reacts in the springtime, wondering if we will have an explosion of light vegetation. Right now the woods look wonderful, clean and open.
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Dangerous offshore wind event could occur from 1/6 to 1/9 time frame. The ensemble means are in good agreement for the upper air positioning. With the amplified long wave troughing digging into the Southern US and the North Pacific ridge amplifying at the same time, it’s a classic offshore wind event set up that should result in a moderate to strong wind event. The EC /CMC camp brings upper level support / large height gradient directly over CA but the GFS is further east. Perhaps something in the middle occurs.
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