My crew here in SND isn’t hanging up anything yet. Lilac Fire was this week 7 years ago and we all pulled extended duty up to Christmas in 2017. History isn’t forgotten for the older company officers here.
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This is a point forecast for Oxnard early Tuesday into the afternoon. Looking at the RH and wind gusts, it looks like mid morning is the most critical timeframe, but all together critical conditions.
link here: Fire Weather Dashboard
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SDG&E sent out PSPS alerts yesterday and Saturday to 117K+ customers. We’re in Valley Center and was alerted to a likely power shutoff within 12 hours 90 minutes ago. Most serious alert ever received so methinks they see this event as serious. Or maybe not. 
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AT&T just sent out PSPS text to us here in San Marcos in the last hour for it being a possibility.
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I was assigned to the Lilac Fire for 4 days and was one of the 1st on scene as it came out of the drainage on the west side of the 15 and roared across Old Hwy 395 into the MH park. One of the few times I’ve actually ran to move my vehicle.
My point was simply that it has been fairly quiet on here considering what is knocking on our door steps.
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Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) -no real amount of moisture since posting by LACFD
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Not sure if this point has been brought up but due to the time of year there is a maximum amount of leaves and litter on the ground from trees and other deciduous or semi deciduous vegetation. This will increase the risk of long range spotting and fire impacting structures/neighborhoods.
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I see a few folks mentioning rain… I just don’t see it coming anytime soon.
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It’s important to highlight that this event has a significant East wind attached to it which traditionally favors San Diego County during the back half of some Santa Ana wind events. I’m particularly concerned for that county as it hasn’t gotten hit too hard from wimd events so far this year and has had a good amount of ignitions this year (particularly of the border type). For what it’s worth. All eyes on the alert Ca network.
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I completely agree, it is gonna rip pretty well in San Diego, more so than most NE events.
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Alot of those cameras or at least South County Border Cameras went offline, I would figure its because of the Public Safety Power Shutoffs from East Jamul to the Imperial County Line along Hwy 94.
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It has already made the switch. Not critical RH levels yet - but a start even now would have significant potential.
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LAX-DAG up to -4.9 already
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PSPS started. 29k w/o power. Friend 1/4 mile north just lost power.
https://www.sdge.com/psps-dashboard
Figure by 9PM unless we get real lucky. Currently almost 0 wind.
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SDGE is going hard on the PSPS tonight for sure. Remember that it’s the number of accounts they are dumping…not people count. Actual folks being affected could be 2-3 times that. Most of the SDU back country is dark. And what’s crazy is…the restoration date being given is FRIDAY 5PM. Every single foot of impacted lines must be inspected before power is restored.
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Sadly most water supplies in the affected rural areas cannot be pumped and limited storage available.
https://www.sdge.com/psps-dashboard
Over 1/3 of the AlertCams in SD County are offline due to lack of power
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