Forecast models suggesting pretty potent inside slider for the 6th time frame. Time will tell, but it is the season. If we do not get much more precipitation tomorrow, many places will have had two weeks of drying by then.
8 Likes
3 Likes
Family lives in Ranchita. Recorded 11.04 inches of rain in 3 days.
5 Likes
2 Likes
GFS fatansy land…where hurricanes and Santa Anas battle for dominance in Southern California.
5 Likes
Really appreciate your intel, any ideas or guesses for East Wind season in SoCal? Another late wind season this year?
2 Likes
I saw that, the GFS really loves to give hopium only to cuck out a few days later. It is by far the most irritating model because 1/10 crazy scenarios it shows will actually verify… so if you lend it credence it will burn you most of the time.
@SoCalFyreNerd As far as east winds go, La Niña can bring increased inside slider activity which can statistically increase the chances of having stronger east wind events. It’s hard to predict individual events. There are so many ‘x’ factors involved 
. Nobody could have really predicted what happened early this year.
9 Likes
Use this for assessment as well: https://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/myfiles/assessment.pdf
Still no strong signals for insider sliders yet. CPC still shows higher odds of warmer air in the Great Basin for the next 1–2 weeks.
5 Likes
Weather Underground calling for up to 1/2” of rain afternoon/overnight central sierras.
4 Likes
Just got some strong thunderstorms in Fresno.
5 Likes
.65" on the Old Hwy Mariposa
5 Likes
Pretty good rain overnight in the Sierra Foothills south of Fresno. And there was already green grass poking up everywhere…
7 Likes
Right now water dogs are being chased in Jose basin.
2 Likes
.4 inches in Murphys
2 Likes
Single tree, down in Jose basin. The road is a muddy mess going down there.
3 Likes
Spoke to someone working FSR on the upper end of Garnet. Had a dusting of sleet/snow yesterday afternoon…
8 Likes
Based on the multi model track consensus … Priscilla is likely to take a Nora (1997) like track and thus the biggest impacts should be in the eastern deserts into Arizona. Very worried about the flooding situation for the mountains of Arizona because there is a lot of forcing from the strong pacific trough interacting with an incredible amount of moisture . This is exceptionally late for the ‘peak’ of the monsoon trough. As I have highlighted the last few seasons, the storm will carve out a lane for inside sliders to begin and help cool the Great Basin.
The Pacific trough is very strong for this time of year and thus the interaction between Priscilla and the trough will mean a very sharp gradient between the precipitation boundary. The question is still up in the air as far as precipitation chances for west of the mountains.
Food for thought: if this is occurring during ENSO neutral / weak La Niña what lies ahead when we have a 1997 like El Niño event again?
11 Likes
Weak and moderate La Nina’s can favor AR’s and at times “ family’s of AR’s”. If I cherry pick a few years.. weak La Nina’s have been associated with some significant floods in our state.. especially in the NOPS.
1996 comes to mind..
Without any background as a climatologist… my interpretation is that the genesis lies both in the enhanced northern branch of the jet stream and the relative effects of where the blocking HP sets up to the SW which slows or impedes the progression of troughs from sagging south and instead allows them to focus all their precipitation on the large watersheds of the north state.
With the persistence of the Pacific Trough.. could we be in for an active fall and early winter? 96 and 2005/6 were very wet Fall and early Winter periods and then a dry remainder. Somewhat of a front loaded year???
9 Likes
I was more alluding to the tropical influence we have had the last 4 years. I am really into this because I do think with whatever sun-earth cycle we are going through that at some point we will get a tropical cyclone landfall in Southern CA. Also took a guess a little earlier in the thread that we would have an early precipitation season followed by dry late winter and spring setting the stage for summer of 2026. There is more to this then meets the eye. We will just need to get through it..
13 Likes
Between 2023 being a weak la nina and the current sea surface temperature anomaly off china, I am not particularly excited for this winter.
Even less for when things align and we get elevated temp bands along the equator, and western pacific. Add in a high pressure pillow around Idaho and we might get another IMT activation for flooding.
5 Likes