Anvil, I think we’d all appreciate you elaborating and explaining what your expert eyes are telling you and what we can expect out in the line. Thank you sir
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That my friend looks like a MAJOR wind event for us in SoCal. Lots of folks already talking about this as an event equal or dare I say worse than last week.
The “rain” that was talked about for the weekend appears to have dried up and I’m seeing folks mention maybe only drizzle in some areas now. This is not make a dent in the potential event for next week.
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Those are 5,000 ft winds correct ? Are you seeing something to suggest forcing to the ground ?
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Are we talking about today (1/14) or is this a future, predicted event?
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This is for a week from today.
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I will let anvilhead answer that but I do see the potential for mountain waves and very strong winds translating to the ground.
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This is correct. There would be a lot of cold air advection and moderate upper level support showing at this time. It’s very impressive because it’s still seven days out and the resolution on the models tends to pick up more data points as we get closer. It could be a similar set up as the previous wind event, but it looks like it would include more areas with strong and potentially damaging winds. Granted, we are still about five days out from this becoming solidified, and the models will likely change a bit back-and-forth. At this time, a moderate Santa Ana wind event is a safe bet…. And the potential exist for this to be even a little stronger than the previous wind event if models keep trending towards stronger upper level support.
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when does this next event start?
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Good question and I think at this time the short answer is “no”, nobody can really “quantify the effectiveness, impacts on civilian behavior & how does the layperson tell/feel a difference between a PDS-RFW & “Normal” RFW?”
Further background: During the 2019 Tick, Getty and Kincade fires NWS offices used different language such as “historic”, “critical”, and “extreme” Red Flag Warning. The intent was correct but the end user fire managers (i.e. GACCS) were confused by the variation in language.
In the world of meteorology the word “tornado” is powerful in the Plains east of the Rockies, just as “Santa Ana” in Southern California can imply a dangerous wind/weather event. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman Oklahoma instituted the term “PDS” or Particularily Dangerous Sitation for those days when strong F4-5 damaging/deadly tornadoes were more likely due to meteorological setup. For people in “tornado alley” it gave a way to quantify your run of the mill versus truly damaging tornado event. Through time and education behaviors changed (schools, hospitals, etc). Like the Palisades/Eaton event they suffered through seminal tornado events (1974 Super Tornado outrbreak or 1999 Moore Oklahoma would perhaps be equivalant to 1961 Bel Air or insert whatever historic fire you want here). The upshot is SPC had success with changing behaviors (public, media, etc) when they issued PDS Tornado Watches.
Fast forward. After the Oct 2019 fires the fire agencies asked for more clear language to try and distingush a “typical” Santa Ana from one that is truely more unique/rare/strong. Id have to dig up the work the LA office did (as well as NWS Reno) but the intention was for these to be issued every few years. Think of it like ERC charts at 99th percentile. Prior to this year the last time the LA office issued a PDS Red Flag was Oct 2021 (please fact check me on that as Im going off memory from the Mountain Fire earlier this year). Point being is we dont have a lot of events to see how the language helped or not, it will take time. I will say the media does seem to do their job and pick up on this language. Getting people to take action, especially in todays world is a whole other issue of which I have no expertise or background.
Just trying to give a more historical background. The PDS language has worked in tornado country and it made sense as policy was already in place to move forward versus trying to develop something new like “purple flag”, etc.
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I appreciate your words! I’ve always wondered just how our warnings & checklists get interpreted and/or acted upon during times of high stress. In the middle of the firefight going from PDS RFW to “normal” RFW it got me once again thinking who can tell a difference and does anyone care in the moment. Don’t want to clog this Wx thread with social science stuff because like Wx this too is a fascinating rabbit hole… NHESS - Responses to severe weather warnings and affective decision-making
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I really appreciate this context. Very well written, as always.
As someone who lives and works in the LOX area, my concern is there has already been 3 PDS issued since October. Far from once every few years. I acknowledge that we are seeing these “unprecedented” events and anomalous weather patterns so the need to think outside the box is paramount to public safety. I just get worried about the inflation of the word and the implication that has in a boy-who-cried-wolf sense.
Thanks for all you do!
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@cdfer that is the age old problem! The lack of a fire event reduces the validity of the warning. Time and time again. Sometimes we just get lucky and that is all we have.
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agree, the red flag warnings have been out since thanksgiving and no one cared till it did some damage, now everyone is aware. I fall into the same complacency, first couple red flags of the summer I’m all ears but after a few months of fire season its just business as usual.
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Exactly. When every briefing is saying that fuels are in the 90th+ percentile and this is an unprecedented red flag it starts to mean nothing.
The fire is going to be nuclear and we can’t do anything but get people out of the way and take action when it calms down.
That’s been every major incident for the last 10 years. Using the terms “unprecedented” or “historic” has no meaning to those of us on the ground anymore; and many new FF have only ever seen this kind of fire behavior so for some of us this is crazy, for them it’s a typical fire season.
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Polar Vortex, Atmospheric River, Weather Alert Day. It’s all the same thing. I understand PDS was not created by the news meteorologists, but I fear that it will fall into the same category. Complacency numbs not only the civilian population, but us as well.
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That’s also why all of us have job security
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What days are the major event expected?
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Will So Ops hold resources?
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I know some LG T1 ST were released by Eaton today, and sent home.
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