Just saw a severe thunderstorm warning may be happening for San Diego east county?
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I did notice the models were picking up on some stronger thunderstorms for tomorrow, but I donât think they are severe thunderstorm worthy. @anvilhead or anyone else, do you have any other intel on that for tomorrow?
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Risk of thunderstorms but the cool down will be nice.
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A large TStorm has formed over Mt Pinos in the LPF⌠looking at radar appears to be over a dozen lightning strikes
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Thatâs a lot of energy in that one isolated cell. EGP showed 24 strikes
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The cam for viewing pleasure
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AA51 completed a lighting detection starts fly over of the Southern Sierra Nevada range= none found. Tuesday afternoon.
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Slept through it, didnât hear a thing
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I also happened to have slept through this..
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Madera side getting some strikes too⌠of course all outside of the Creek scar
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Now we have some down in Fresno county that have caused a large power outage from millerton lake to pine ridge.
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OK guys so Iâm going to use this frame of the European model only as an example. Iâm not citing it as a forecast, way too far out in the future. You can see that the circulation remains closed as it approaches the coastal waters, and all of the rain is within the circulation itselfâŚ. You can see the surface high-pressure building in the Great Basin and deserts of Southern California setting up a Santa Ana wind event. Itâs one of those nightmare fuel situations.
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Yup.
Happened 2022 during the Fairview fire. San Diego County got dumped on with rain, causing all kinds of flood related havoc. Yet the Fairview fire.gor about 8-12hr of a really good dry and windy Santa Ana wind event that pushed the fire hard west. Then the rain arrived and the fire went from supreasion, skipped suppression repair, demob, etc and went right to flood fighting and sand bagging operations in 1-2 operational periods.
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And we lucked out because there was a moisture surge from Kay, and she was close enough to shore to attach to the rain shield. My concern is a stronger storm with a lower minimum central pressure taking a similar track, but with a strong surface high pressure in the Great Basin killing the rain over the land.
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Way out in fantasyland the GFS wants to have a tropical system make landfall in SoCalâŚ. Way too far to bet on⌠but based on current conditionsâŚ
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