North Ops Weather - 2022

NWS Sac: Widespread moderate, with local high, heat risk continues today
though temperatures will ease off a bit from Tuesday’s highs
across the southern half of the Sacramento Valley southward into
the northern San Joaquin Valley as onshore flow returns and clouds
spread northward from central California.

Water vapor imagery shows the low is off the coast to the west
southwest of Vandenberg. Mid and upper level moisture and
instability is continuing to work its way northward and a few
thunderstorms are developing over central California. Some of this
activity will work its way northward into the Motherlode and
northern Sierra later this morning and into the afternoon as the
low moves closer to the coast.

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Strikes in north ops

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In the wake of the cut off low, the upper level ridge is going to build all the way into BC. Temperatures will stay hot and conditions will dry through the weekend. Early next week, a trough is going to break down the ridge a bit in the Pacific NW and this could promote gusty onshore winds for critical fire weather conditions during the afternoon.

Models drag an anomalous surface cold front and subsequent surface high pressure through the midwest which is bullish for continued ridging and above normal temperatures until the end of the month in the Western US.

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Lightningmaps.org is showing strikes on the tahoe Stanislaus, lassen and plumas.

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A post was split to a new topic: CA-STF/TCU-Lightning June 2022??

Just rained pretty good here in Soulsbyville above Sonora (Tuolumne County) … Lots of thunder as well and lightning strikes in Calaveras County and on the @Stanislaus_NF

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It’s still quite a ways out with the tide but the model consistency run to run for the GFS is there. I won’t inundate with information since a forecast this far out is shakey 9/10 times but i don’t think I will be at fault.

Around 7/7 a very potent heatwave looks likely with the next ridging cycle that could lead to excessive heat warnings. This ridge could be very large and might cover much of the Southern US and bring a major heatwave to North Ops.

Will update as the concern grows.

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The GFS has been consistent in overdoing heat waves this year, but based on climatology it would not be out of the question. Some impressive numbers being spit out for highs. Would be similar to 2021 where a significant heat wave preceded the start of the Dixe. It will be interesting to watch the evaporative demand index and compare where the fire starts are.

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I’m working on a short educational video on live fuel moisture for The Lookout Youtube channel. I was thinking the Rices Fire and Sandra Fire are good examples of how alignment, wind, and amount of dead material in growing brush affect fire spread, but how both fires also really didn’t push very hard on the flanks or when they didn’t have slope/pre-heating.
This video is showing fuel moisture in manzanita collected last weekend on Purdons Crossing Road, about 9 miles uphill of the Rices Fire.

Anyone got ideas of some simple talking points on live fuel moisture and the seasonal transition? Planning to talk a little about indicators like the buckeye leaves dying, or poison oak turning red…

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There was an interesting phenomenon this spring when the leaves all came out green and then a very hard freeze killed them all. The oaks stayed like this a while and then new leaves came. But lots of dead leaves are still frozen up there in the air. I wonder if that has any effect on fire behavior.

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Forecast models continue to advertise an excessive heat warning event July 7th-July 12th. We are about 48 hours away from near certainty on this forecast. This has the potential to be one of the strongest high pressure systems in United States history. The shape of the ridge, being inland over the desert means that the sea-breeze should be able to regulate temperatures in some areas during the afternoon.

Although many people will focus on the heat wave, in my opinion the most critical time will be when this ridge breaks down… as strong onshore winds on top of a very dry and hot airmass could produce explosive fire growth.

GFS 18z depiction of the giga-ridge breaking down, with tight isobars indicating strong onshore winds.

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Was up in south central Oregon camping a month or so ago and noticed large areas of frost killed snow brush. This was just on the eastern side of the 395 corridor between Chiloquin and K. Falls…

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Is this setting up a similar pattern that occurred when the Carr fire started?

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